Based on a recent analysis, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price may reach $200,000 in the summer of 2025. However, several of the current metrics still appear bearish.
Bitcoin has been in the bear market for the longest time in history, which may have sparked lots of unrest among investors. Nonetheless, history is to be considered, and investors need to remain patient to enjoy significant profits in the coming months.
New data showed that Bitcoin’s price can go as high as $200,000 by 2025.
Although BTC has managed to hold its position above $27,000 for some months now, its price volatility has remained low, due to the bearish market.
Based on market data, Bitcoin’s price plunged by almost 3% in the past week. On October 10, 2023, the crypto was trading above $27,500 with a market capitalization of more than $536 billion.
Nonetheless, a recent post by Seth, a popular Twitter handle that posts cryptographic analyses, showed that Bitcoin’s price can explode.
#Bitcoin 🎯🥳 could potentially reach 200k-250k around summer 2025! 📈🤯
This is by using 2015 bull market Fractal without the Covid Black Swan! Using the Bitcoin Cycle Indicator you can clearly see what was the bottom and top. Then draw a resistance line and put in the Fractal… pic.twitter.com/HWx0pOxLaD
— Seth (@seth_fin) October 8, 2023
The latest analyses used the 2015 bull market Fractal without the Covid Black Swan. By drawing similarities from the price action then and now, the price of BTC may reach $200,000-$250,000 in the summer of 2025, which seems overly ambitious.
This growth can be pushed by Bitcoin’s forthcoming halving in 2024 since these events are followed by major price surges. Notably, we may have already entered a bull market, as suggested by CryptoCon.
The #Bitcoin green lights are turning on everywhere we look, and in this case the blue lights.
Once the red Bear Market downtrend block is completed on the chop zone, Bitcoin makes one final small return to red.
Unless you have a black swan, the blue lights end the… pic.twitter.com/nGENb4ZuZC
— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) October 8, 2023
Are We Already In A Bitcoin Bull Market?
A closer look at Bitcoin’s metrics showed that the coin was not under any selling pressure at the time of publication. Market data showed that Bitcoin’s net deposits on crypto exchanges were low compared to the past seven-day average. It means that long-term holders’ movements in the past week were lower. Nonetheless, near-term analysis shows that investors were selling their crypto at a profit, hinting at a market top.
While Bitcoin’s price surged in the recent past, it also recorded a hike in its Open Interest. In general, when Open Interest grows along with the price, it results in a continuation of the same trend, hence boosting the chances of a price surge.
Bitcoin Price Action Mirrors Past Pre-Halving Cycles
Recent sideways in Bitcoin’s price action seem to resemble past cycles heading into forthcoming halvings, as highlighted by crypto analyst Miles Deutscher. In a recent tweet, Deutscher highlighted range bound trading from Q2 to Q4 of pre-halving years is historically normal before bullish shifts in late November.
#Bitcoin's recent price action is still mirroring the last 2 cycles.
This is typical sideways price action that occurs from Q2-Q4 in pre-halving years.
— Miles Deutscher (@milesdeutscher) October 10, 2023
Bitcoin’s next halving is expected in March 2024, which will cut its block reward in half. Previous halving events have catalyzed massive bull runs.
Nevertheless, Crypto Capital Venture founder Dan Gambardello said that dwindling Bitcoin dominance in the crypto market is an unfavorable macro sign. At about 51%, Bitcoin dominance is significantly lower than the 70% level in the same period in the last halving cycle.
Bitcoin dominance is around 51% and is losing its strength.
This time last cycle, it was around 70%
Bitcoin dominance is getting weak on the macro pic.twitter.com/LDOvzr1Fex
— Dan Gambardello (@cryptorecruitr) October 10, 2023
But looking at the historical charts, the current consolidation matches the crypto’s behavior before its built-in supply shocks. This means the flagship crypto is still on track to hit new all-time highs based on previous cycle roadmaps.
Bitcoin halving is a repetitive event that happens after every four years. During the halving, the reward given to miners for processing BTC transactions is reduced by 50%. The reduction slows down the rate of creation of new Bitcoin, eventually impacting the total supply of Bitcoin in circulation.
The final halving event is expected to happen in 2140, at that point, the total number of Bitcoin in circulation will reach its maximum limit of 21 million. This halving mechanism is developed to help contribute to Bitcoin’s scarcity and its increasing resistance to inflation.
As the halving event gets closer, Bitcoin’s price action keeps mimicking the past. This gives lots of hope for investors who expect massive gains in the coming months. However, the decreasing dominance suggests there might be risks in case mainstream demand fails to intensify.
Bitcoin Could Easily Collapse Before The Halving
One trader who accurately called the 2018 bear market bottom for the biggest crypto warned that Bitcoin may repeat its 2020 price action where it plunged from $10,000 to $4,000 in a few weeks.
Pseudonymous analyst Bluntz told his 225,200 followers on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin has already recorded a cycle bottom near $15,000. But, he noted that BTC can drop to $19,000 before exploding into a massive bull market in 2024.
“I feel that BTC has probably bottomed at $15,000 but also that we are in the 2019-2020 part of the cycle where we can still easily come down to $19,000-$20,000 and put in a higher low and continue higher throughout 2024.”
Bluntz employs the Elliott Wave theory as a cornerstone of his analytical methodology. This theory is rooted in technical analysis and seeks to forecast forthcoming price movements by observing the patterns driven by collective market psychology, which tend to materialize in wave-like formations.
Despite the near-term bearish trend in the Bitcoin market, all analysts believe that now is the best time to buy for maximum profits since it is expected to record new all-time highs in 2024 and 2025.