Bitcoin (BTC) remains on track to record its highest monthly close since May 2022. However, BTC’s price appears to be range-bound. The flagship cryptocurrency survived new United States macro data on November 30, 2023, as traders focused on the monthly close after Wall Street opened.
PCE Keeps Fed Pivot Pressure Active
Data acquired from TradingView showed BTC price actions sticking to a narrow intraday range below $38,000. After its failed breakout on November 29, hopes were high that the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, would help catalyze inflation in the market.
That, nonetheless, had not come to pass, with November’s final Wall Street open coming up. PCE came in majorly in line with expectations – a boost for the Fed’s monetary tightening and reinforcement of dropping inflation.
Determining whether interest rates might now start to fall – the key takeaway for risk assets – financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter however remained cautious. After the PCE results, it queried on X:
“Another sign inflation is falling but still above the Fed’s 2% target. Can the Fed really pivot now?”
Kobeissi once more cited the words from the founder and CEO of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, Bill Ackman, who earlier in the week forecasted rate cuts starting as soon as Q1, 2024. It stated:
“It’s important to note that the effects of monetary policy lag. However, does the Fed really want to risk jumping the gun and cutting rates too soon? We believe calls for rate cuts in Q1 2024 are too ambitious.”
PCE failed to dent market expectations of Fed policy, with data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool still showing nearly unanimous expectations of a rate hike pause continuing in December 2023.
November BTC Price Gains Almost 10%
For Bitcoin market participants, nonetheless, the monthly close was of more interest.
Bitcoin was up by almost 10% in November, making it the first ‘green’ 11th month of the year since 2020. Above $37,660, the monthly close would become its highest since May 2022.
In November 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin lost 7.1% and 16.2%, respectively, based on data from the statistics resource CoinGlass.
Looking carefully at the current chart Setup, popular trader Jelle saw reasons to be bullish on Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) readings. He told X subscribers earlier on November 30:
“After spending the past month building up a giant hidden bullish divergence, Bitcoin has breached its RSI downtrend!”
An accompanying chart showed the needed area for the bulls to secure. Jelle added:
“If the price can hold the grey box, I think this starts moving higher soon. All eyes on the monthly close.”