If everything goes okay from here on in – which is not a guarantee, but is reasonably likely, according to analyst firm Canalys – then PC shipments will fall by 3.4% this year. If things continue on their path to hell and the coronavirus deals more damage, then global shipments will fall by 8.8%.
China would suffer the most in such a situation, as one would expect. In a worst-case scenario, Chinese sales will fall by 12.2%, or by 3.8% in a best-case scenario.
To put some numbers to it, the overall volume of PCs sold in 2019 was about 396 million according to Canalys. This year that could be between 362-382 million units.
The impact will be the most dramatic in Q1 and Q2, with shipments down by 10% and 9%, respectively. The numbers are still coming in for February, but manufacturing capacity could be between 30-35% of maximum in a best-case scenario and 20-25% in the worst case. Things are expected to stabilize in March if the coronavirus is dealt with, or in May if it hangs about.
As the year comes to a close, however, the market conditions will improve significantly as both demand and manufacturing capacity increase. Canalys predicts a bustling 17% year-on-year growth in Q4, followed by a gentle 0.3% growth throughout 2021.
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