Bitcoin shrugged off the most recent round of German government on-chain transactions, but BTC price resistance trendlines remained out of reach.
In that context, BTC revisited $59,000 after the July 9 Wall Street opening as the German government moved most of its Bitcoin holdings.
BTC Price Unbothered As German Government Moves Continue
Data from TradingView showed an upside in BTC price momentum culminating in the daily highs of $58,102 on Bitstamp.
This exchange was one of the many involved in the most recent round of transactions to and from a wallet owned by the German state. Both inbound and outbound BTC transactions happened on the Day, the latter featuring nearly 3,000 BTC.
On July 8 there was another source of debate in the current market: the tokens belonging to the defunct exchange Mt. Gox also moved onchain. The CEO and founder of the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant argued:
“Bitcoin market is still heavily influenced by psyops. Govt BTC selling is negligible compared to overall liquidity, and most Mt. Gox BTC holdings haven’t moved to creditors. CT still blames the drop on govt selling. Smart money is replacing dumb money. We’re still early.”
In the latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers, trading company QCP Capital saw a large presence of ‘speculative’ trading behavior. It observed:
“Despite thin liquidity, BTC and ETH have made higher lows this week, with dips bought up aggressively. The market is highly reactive to supply movements, suggesting speculative selling pressure rather than real spot demand. This may indicate a market over-positioning for the downside.”
Bitcoin traded up 1.5% on the day, something that started to offer some market observers cause for mild optimism. A popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, told X followers:
“Bitcoin is showcasing some initial signs of stability after the crash.”
Rekt Capital produced a chart that showed the downward-sloping trendline requiring breaking for a full recovery to happen. It featured relative strength index (RSI) data, which on the daily charts was teasing bullish divergence with price. He added:
“This Downtrend will be challenged if the Bullish Divergence plays out.”
Another chart showed the price reclaiming a support zone at about $56,750 and coinciding with the past lows seen at the beginning of May.
Bitcoin Analyst Sees The Need For ‘Catalyst’
Furthermore, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, told investors they need to remain cautious during these turbulent times in the market.
Bitcoin, he said, still lacked momentum for a reclaim of levels that were lost in recent weeks, including the 200-day moving average (MA) at $58,822. Material Indicators’ X account stated:
“This new Trend Precognition signal on the Bitcoin Daily signal indicates that price isn’t likely to go lower than yesterday’s candle ‘today.’”
According to the account, a push back down to $54.3k would invalidate the upside momentum.
“Seeing some moderate strength at the moment, but I think we need a catalyst or a fat block of BTC bid liquidity to reclaim the 200-day Moving Average.”
Bitcoin ‘Power Law’ Records Potential 300% BTC Price Gains By Late 2025
Bitcoin price momentum is still about three months from returning upward, according to analysis, but the outlook for the coming years might excite the Bitcoin bulls.
Bitcoin has three months until the bull market resumes, but it could still see 300% gains by 2026. These were some of the conclusions of the latest BTC price analysis from the pseudonymous engineer called Apsk32.
Bitcoin Price ‘Acceleration’ Not Due For Three Months
In a July 9, 2024, X post, Apsk32 returned to his power law metric to chart the potential future performance of the Bitcoin market.
The power law offers a lower BTC price support band that has held since Bitcoin traded at only $1.00. Several other bands, or “time contours,” offer extra price information, eventually giving a $1 million price target by 2036.
A segment of a past X post from June explains:
“Time contours tell us how long it will be before the support forces current prices upward. For 12 years, every bear market has returned to this support line. The support passes one million dollars in 2036 and Bitcoin isn’t stopping there.”
Relaying past price action onto the current 4-year cycle, as highlighted by Apsk32, is helping to explain the current market behavior, including the current 25% plunge from March’s $73,800 all-time highs. The latest post summarized:
“If bitcoin’s cycle pattern continues, price should remain inside or near this blue cloud. The ETFs pushed us out of the cloud and now we’re reverting. We’re 3+ months away from upwards acceleration and we could see prices go up 4x by the end of 2025.”
A market chart shows the “Power Law Fractal Cloud” — a guideline range for Bitcoin moving forward. Apsk32 acknowledged:
“Does the price have to stay within the cloud? Absolutely not. This time could be different, in fact, it already is.”
Bitcoin Is Moving From Weak To Strong Hands
Based on market reports, Bitcoin traders are set for more BTC price drops as a feeling of fear engulfs the crypto space. Analysts say Bitcoin might drop below $50,000.
On the other hand, sources of optimism include the reduced selling by Bitcoin miners in the past month and a return to net inflows for the US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of around $300 million on July 8, marking their best single-day tally in the last month, according to data from various sources such as UK-based Investment Company Farside Investors.
A famous trader, Jelle, wrote in a partial response, comparing ETF buying with Bitcoin sales by the German government:
“Looks like the boomers & institutions are buying the dip here while Germany offloads a bunch of coins. The coins are moving from weak to strong hands.”
